First, she sketched the interaction of the key elements:
• Radiation from the sun;
• 100 km of atmosphere, (of which the lowest 10 are critical);
• the oceans (heat sink and redistribution);
• gases (N2, O2, N20, CO2, aerosols, etc.); and
• the reflective efficiency of the land.

Processes involved are:
• Solar radiation reflection, heat absorption & retention (atmospheric greenhouse gases are crucial, & the balance is being disturbed by fossil fuel burning); and
• carbon exchange between the atmosphere and oceans/earth (affected by land-use change).

She illustrated this with graphs of temperature variations either side of a 30-year mean.
• Over the past 1,000 years temperatures varied either side of a mean until about 1900 when they took off.
• A map overlaid with dots, whose size is proportionate to temperature variation per decade, shows recent impact is greatest across the tundra of the N Hemisphere. Melting of the tundra is exacerbating the situation.
• Milankovitch cycles (natural earth orbital / spin anomalies) are a demonstrably inadequate explanation of current experience. Very long term measures of the key greenhouse gases show correlation with Milankovitch cycles prior to the 19th century and a sharp break thereafter.

Mrs Dabrowski explained how she was born in Poland and ‘served’ the Germans during their time of occupation in Poland (30 years). She pointed out that life was not easy in those years for her and the Polish people. She studied medicine in Poland and 100s of people would visit the clinic requiring narcotics. There were many drug/narcotic users in Poland during that time as people were unhappy and could not find pleasure in life.

After Stalin died, Poland was a different place and not many people came to the Clinic for narcotics as they were much happier.

She then migrated to Australia. She has 2 children and 1 child who was into drugs;  that she believes it was the result of the ex-husband leaving them when the child was young.

In 1979, she set up the Soup Kitchen and paid for this out of her own money for 8 years. She has had financial and in-kind assistance since that time and appreciates the support that Rotary gives to her. She has been a recipient of Awards for her dedication to helping the homeless and effortless hard work: Canberra Citizen of the Year (1996) and ACT Senior Australian of the Year (1999).

The Australian Rotary Health Research Fund’s (ARHRF) Winnebago Mental Health safari van was parked at the door of the Hellenic Club to advertise the occasion as Rotarians and guests arrived for the celebratory dinner.

Senator Gary Humphries represented the Prime Minister, whose letter of tribute to the work of Rotarians he read. Gary Nairn MP, PS to the PM and a Rotarian represented the Minister for Health & Aging. He noted that mental health was a much bigger “blip on the Government’s radar screen” than previously.

John Renieri, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the ARHRF was the first keynote speaker of the evening. He set out the background to the establishment of the Fund 25 years ago by Ian Scott of the RC of Mornington (Vic) noting that an early grant supporting research into the cause of cot deaths had resulted in identification of a simple risk reducing action that had reduced the incidence of this tragedy by 40%. He then spoke of the Fund and Rotary’s drive to combat the silence that has traditionally surrounded mental illness – chronic depression, bipolar disorders, eating disorders and autism.

Rotary, he noted, was the largest private fund supporting health research in Australia. It had accumulated some $17m over 25 years of which about $11m had been allocated to health research. Contributions and disbursements now exceed $1m per year. These cover project support; training young researchers (Ian Scott Fellows) and support for Post Doctoral work.

John said that he had participated with the Mental Health Safari that had left Sydney in July and worked its way around state capitals and country towns in WA, NT, QLD. and NSW encouraging a greater preparedness of those suffering mental illness and those treating and living with sufferers to discuss the illness and its impact. Acceptance of conditions of mental dysfunction as an illness (with no more stigma than a physical illness) and discussion were crucial to diagnosis, intervention and remediation. The safari will end in Sydney in mid December after promoting its message in VIC and TAS.

Prof. Anthony Jorm spoke passionately about the impact / significance of mental illness and the relatively low level of attention it attracts given its:
• Prevalence and economic significance. 1 in 5 of the population is touched by it every year.
• Disabling consequences (disabilities can’t be seen but nonetheless are real; rating only behind coronary illness and cancers in impact).
• Growing significance; absolutely, given the aging of the population; and relatively, given progressive success in winding back causes of other disabilities.
The keys to success were, he opined, improved education, including inclusion of mental health as a core element in the GP’s curricula; and introduction of early intervention programs.
Tony Jorm concluded sharing his hopes for the future, namely that:

• Mental health research will attract the same proportion of funding as heart or cancer research (currently 1/3)
• Government will match private funding of mental health research.
• Other countries will follow the lead of Rotary in Australia and establish specific funds for Health Research.
He noted, were that to eventuate, Ian Scott could become as well known a name as Paul Harris.

Ms Goward provided a wealth of statistical evidence that societal change will continue in fundamental ways that will bear on the lifestyle and welfare of Australians. Despite dramatic increases in levels of participation by women in the paid workforce, increasing competition, education and aspirations impose increasing demands on all. While many men work more than 50 hours a week, the burden of unpaid work continues to be born disproportionately by women (particularly by working mothers). Employers have shown an increased preparedness to grant maternity leave. Despite this and maternity payments, family demands adversely affect the leisure, career opportunities and earning potential / super provision capacity of women to a greater degree than men. Family sizes, particularly among the more able and ambitious, are diminishing.

Justin is studying International Affairs at the School of Asian and Pacific Studies ANU. His home club is Honolulu Sunset and he is being hosted by the Rotary Club of Canberra East.

He reminded members that Rotary is the largest private funder of academic studies (1,100 funded pa). There are 3 categories:
• Cultural – 6 months
• Ambassadorial – 1 to 2 years
• Peace Scholarships

Justin has seen a lot of the world. He was borne in Paulo Alto, California; moved to Houston, Texas; studied at Princeton and then moved to Hawaii. He has taught in the Marshall Islands and the E/W Centre in Hawaii. Justin is a member of Rotaract.

Noel reminded us that Rotary’s future and that its potential to maintain and extend its impact depends crucially on expanding membership. Membership has been declining and he would like to see it grow 15% in 2005.

Noel is promoting a means to achieve this that is classification driven. Club members pair up by their classification with each pair aiming to invite at least 1 prospective new member to the club. Clubs that have adopted this approach have found it highly effective.

Attrition is a major contributor to the decline in membership. Noel reminded members of the importance of the ‘feel good’ factor. It must compensate for the sacrifices that membership requires. Fellowship is crucial and the atmosphere must be one of fun. Sergeant sessions can be a turn off unless managed lightly with good humour. (He liked ours).

Noel concluded by extending an invitation to all to attend the District Conference (21-23 Oct). It will be different with a focus on motivation and some outstanding motivators as key speakers. Register by 16 September to be in the draw for a dozen great wines. Visit the district web site for details.

PDG Bob Greeney presented PP Peter McDermott with a certificate signed by PRI Pres. Glenn Estes for Membership development in 2004.

His presentation was brief touching on the role of the AWM in the celebrations of the weekend. He pointed out that the AWM took little credit for the spectacle centred on the lake. Rather it organised the more intimate remembrance celebrations and get togethers at which those directly involved and their families and descendents could talk about events and memories.

Dr Stanley spent most of the time answering questions from members. Some of the matters addressed were:
• The narrow focus of celebrations on a few battles, while others arguably more significant to Australia’s direct interest are overlooked – eg Milne Bay.
• Distortion of events by the conflicts of publicity aims of governments – eg the air attack on Darwin.
• Remembrance of the anguish caused by war cf its glorification and the heroism of combatants - where governments (inc. AWM’s sole funder) may advance conflicting / limited agendas.
• The problems of selecting appropriate events / groups to be given prominence along ANZAC Parade – and whether / how to celebrate the achievements of those whose efforts prevented conflict escalating into war / combat.
• Different approaches by the victors and defeated to the consequences of war and the limited focus by many countries on education.

Every Super fund member is part owner of: companies (Australian and major international); commercial properties; government bonds and term deposits. Each category provides different returns and volatility. Greater education about investments will allow fund members to make more informed decisions and improve the annual return to their Super.

Dennis was born to a circus family. The 5 legged greyhound; the 19 hand horse, and the boxing ring were the props for a life in which delighting customers paid the bills.

We need to retain the ability to think and laugh as a child. It helps us to relate better to people. It can put problems in perspective. Fun energises us and delivers returns to the bottom line. Customers spend more. Sickies and staff turnover fall. A survey found marketing success depends to almost 25% on “ambience” and over 30% on customer service. Humour is critical to both.

In Dennis’s words; “It is a slow business without show business”. Everyone should do 2 things a day to get out of their comfort zone. Dennis illustrated this with some innocent but quirky ways he challenges himself and others daily:- the hooter in the lift; the mask in the traffic jam; and the tartan Doc Martins.

Tourism is a major contributor to the ACT. It receives about 2 million visitors a year, most from NSW (65%) and a significant proportion coming to visit family and friends (45%). Tourism contributes about $750 million in revenue and generates, directly and indirectly, about 11,400 jobs.

Some of the challenges facing those promoting tourism flow from the loss of the unique status of “blockbuster” exhibitions. The National Library’s “Treasures” and “The Queen’s paintings” at the ANG are examples. These attracted huge numbers of interstate visitors. Neale also mentioned that free access to events can be a mixed blessing. Tourism operators cannot obtain payments for bringing tourists if there is no revenue from which to pay them. Attracting foreign visitors is hard. A big effort will be made to raise the figure above its present low of 5%.

David spoke of 1965 and Canberra at that time and how the opening of Australia’s first Performing Arts Centre was seen as very significant for the National Capital, and was significant across the Australian cultural landscape. David also spoke of the large number of performers who had played at the Canberra Theatre Centre in the last forty years, and of the four events to celebrate the birthday had been held this year.

As part of the Ruby Celebrations, David spoke of the Memorabilia Day held on the 14th May and the connections with the ACT Heritage Library. The Open Day that was held on the 12th June, the Birthday celebration held the 25th June and the I Remember When: The Collection of Oral Histories scheduled for the 24th July.
David also spoke about the improved access facilities for the Hearing Impaired community and for the Vision Impaired community and the chance to work with volunteers from the Royal Blind Society and professional interpreters and captioners providing greater access for theatre activities.

Now 27 Sarah told us that she had been swimming competitively for 15 years. She spoke of her early passion for the sport in Queensland and her decision to move to the AIS to further her skills. This decision, her natural ability and the slog of training was rewarded with participation at three Olympics – Atlanta, Sydney and Athens.

The objective of the Senate Committee is to make something happen in particular the level of spending on mental health.
Often the problem is diagnosed by a Dr when it is out of control but the difficulty is to get the person to the Drs surgery.
The basic problem is that mental illness does not attract attention as does other types of illness, e.g. cancer.

Women's Legal Centre - Rosemary Budavari

We had the real pleasure last week to hear from Rosemary Budavari from the Women’s Legal Centre. Rosemary spoke about the important work they do with women (one of the most disadvantaged groups when it comes to the justice system).

Community Legal Centres like this one are unique in utilising volunteers who come once every fortnight to assist women with their problems. Rosemary made special mention of two of our own members who help out with this work – Katie Firster and Barbara Campbell.

The Women’s Legal Centre is a community legal centre for women in Canberra and the surrounding area. The Centre is run by women and aims to improve women’s access to justice by:

The Centre advises on a wide range of legal problems such as:

For more information on the Women’s Legal Centre check out their web site http://www.womenslegalact.org/#centre.

In general -
• Australians have become more compassionate towards our Indonesian neighbours,
• Our economic relationship is better, and
• We are now able to get into Bande Ache (where previously there was a lot of religious scepticism).

Bad News - Peter also filled us in on some of the bad news to flow from this amazing response. Other appeals have slowed down and many are struggling to make their targets.  He made special mention of their Child Sponsorship program. This program needs to plan well forward, establish projects and pick children - to ensure that to ensure folder information is available on each child.

The Canberra office will also be closing down.

What is strokesafe?

48,000 Australians have a stroke every year. This number will rise to a staggering 74,000 by the year 2017 if nothing is done. Stroke is Australia's third largest killer and is relatively unknown compared with heart and cancer. The solution to this escalating public health issue is strokesafe™.

Developed by the National Stroke Foundation, strokesafe™ aims to save 110,000 Australians from death and disability over the next ten years. strokesafe™ is a major public health program targeting the Australian community with a positive health message on stroke prevention. It is designed to show people that there are steps each of us can take to make ourselves safe from stroke. strokesafe™ is planned to become similar in magnitude to other major public health campaigns such as SunSmart and Quit.

In its inaugural year, strokesafe™ aims to teach Australians the signs of stroke: Weakness or Numbness; Difficulty speaking; Dizziness; Loss of Vision; Headache; and Difficulty swallowing.

The signs of stroke may occur alone or in combination. You should seek medical advice immediately if you experience any of the signs of stroke.

Early signs of stroke

As many stroke survivors can tell you, there are often early signs of stroke. The signs of both stroke and TIA may be any one, or combination of the following:

• Weakness or numbness or paralysis of the face, arm or leg on either or both sides of the body

• Difficulty speaking or understanding

• Dizziness, loss of balance or an unexplained fall

• Loss of vision, sudden blurred or decreased vision in one or both eyes

• Headache, usually severe and of abrupt onset or unexplained change in the pattern of headaches

• Difficulty swallowing

Stroke is always a medical emergency. If you experience any of these symptoms yourself or recognise them in someone else, call 000 even if the symptoms last for only a short time.

The Governor of District 9710, Mr Bob Greeney, introduced the guest of honour.

In his speech, the Governor-General, a previous Rotarian and Paul Harris Fellow, spoke his pleasure, and that of his wife, in being invited to this breakfast. He noted the contribution made to humanity in so many ways over 100 years of “meaningful achievement” by Rotary through its 1.2 million members and close to 32,000 clubs in 166 countries. The acorn sown a century ago during a meeting of individuals had become a giant oak tree. The success of the organisation resulted, in his view, from two defining characteristics, namely; a system of classification that ensures that every club is a microcosm of the winder business and professional community; and a commitment to service through action. He said that he applauded an attitude within Rotary typified by the question, “What must I do? rather than, What must be done?”

By way of example of the achievements of Rotary, the Governor-General pointed to the diversity of key activities of the Rotary Club of Canberra Sunrise. He cited the achievement, with Canberra Sundown, in raising over $100,000 to enable the Galilee school to expand its work after its devastation by bush fires just over 2 years ago; support provided to health and education in PNG; and encouragement given to youth, particularly through the Model United Nations Assembly, the National Youth Science Forum and international youth exchanges.

He noted his personal commitment to establish a National Mentoring Program and asked Rotary to think about ways that it might further contribute its skills and experience for that purpose.

The Governor-General took the opportunity to mention some of the other global achievements of Rotary. He spoke of the Polio Eradication program that since 1985 had protected more than 2 billion children from polio. He thanked Rotarians for their support of the Disaster Relief Task Force following the devastation caused by the recent Tsunami in SE Asia. He referred to the Rotary Australia World Community Service program work that has, among many other achievements, provided safe drinking water to so many in the least developed areas of the World; and to Rotary’s commitment, through the Interplast program, to sponsoring live-changing surgery to those with facial disfigurements for whom the benefits of such procedures would otherwise be incomprehensible and unobtainable.

He commended Rotary for its approach when faced by seemingly insurmountable challenges in “thinking globally and acting locally”. President Peter thanked the Governor-General for his words of encouragement, noting that he was sure Rotarians present would look to what might be done to further the Mentoring initiative announced by the Governor-General. He presented the Governor-General with a medallion struck specifically for the occasion.

On February 9th Duncan Steel tried not to put us off our breakfasts with the topic for his talk: are asteroids and comets anything to worry about?
This is a topic that has often been in the media in recent years, with frequent ‘scares’ when an asteroid is discovered that astronomers realise will come close to our planet at some time in the future, and might even hit. In every case to date, however, prolonged tracking of the objects has enabled the same astronomers to sound the ‘all clear.’ On the other hand, it is also known that comparatively few of the total population of Earth-approaching asteroids has yet been discovered, so that the odds are that if there is one with our number on it, then it is unlikely that it will be spotted ahead of any impact.
In this regard movies such as ‘Deep Impact’ and ‘Armageddon’ are largely fantasy. Nevertheless they are based on fact, and indeed used Duncan’s first book as a basis for their stories (see reading list at end). While the movies (and some even worse TV mini-series) are scientifically inaccurate, they have at least raised public consciousness of a potential problem that deserves serious study.

Know your enemy. On the left is a radar image of a 4-km wide asteroid named Toutatis that passes close by Earth every four years. On the right is a recent spacecraft image of a 25-km long asteroid named Eros that comes close by our planet but cannot strike us.

Duncan posed three equations for us to consider. The first was concerned with the chance of a major asteroid or comet impact on the Earth. For any single, random object, the annual probability of a collision with our planet is around one in a hundred million. However, there are upwards of a thousand Earth-crossing asteroids larger than a kilometre in size, meaning that there is about a one-in-100,000 chance of a big impact on Earth within the next year.

The orbits of all known Earth-approaching asteroids. The red lines are the dangerous ones. The second equation governs the energy that would be released by such an event. Putting in the mass of a 1 km asteroid, and the extreme speed with which the collision would occur (typically 20 km per second, or 72,000 kph), the energy involved is equivalent to about 100,000 megatons of TNT – or ten million times the Hiroshima bomb. Another comparison might be made with the energy release of the Boxing Day earthquake that caused the calamitous tsunami in Asia. An asteroid only 200 metres in size (and hence less than 1% the mass of a 1 km object) would release the same energy as that earthquake.

 
Scientists who have looked at this problem believe that a 1-km asteroid is about the threshold for causing a global catastrophe. No matter where you lived, relative to ground zero, you would be in trouble. For example, many would die in the immediate aftermath because the energy involved would split atmospheric oxygen and nitrogen molecules, producing poisonous oxides of nitrogen (a brown smog par excellence) that would spread worldwide. The explosion would:
• excavate a crater about 15 km across and 5 km deep,
• pulverise around 100 cubic kilometres of target rock,
• throw the dust into the upper atmosphere, from where it would take years to settle out, and
• in the meantime severely cool Earth and leading to the loss of several growing seasons.
The result would be mass starvation over some years, with upwards of half the human race dying.

Not all craters are on the Moon. This is Gosses Bluff in the Northern Territory. The ring of hills, about 6 km in diameter, is simply the remnant central uplift from an impact crater that was originally 22 km across. More than twenty other impact craters are known in Australia alone.

For full size photo - double click to open thumbnail.
 

It is quite simple to do the sums and calculate an actuarial-type annual expectation of loss for Australia alone, due to the possibility of such an impact occurring in the next decade, or century. Putting a value on lives alone – that is, zero value for all houses (whether your own, Parliament House, or the Sydney Opera House) – the exposure we face is of order 300 million dollars per year.
This could be argued to be the minimum we should spend to tackle and obviate this surprising hazard. The reality is that a far smaller figure is needed. For example, the U.S. currently spends about 5 million dollars per annum on searching for threatening asteroids, although a higher figure would be justified. What the U.S. really needs are international partners, especially those who could survey the southern skies.